Wildfires, once primarily associated with a seasonal pattern, are now a year-round threat across the Western United States, according to the 2025 Cotality Wildfire Risk Report: Priced Out & Burned Out.
The analysis finds that more than 2.6 million homes across 14 Western states—totalling an estimated $1.3 trillion in reconstruction value—face moderate or higher wildfire risk. Of these, over one million homes are classified as very high risk.
California accounts for nearly half of the homes at risk, with 1.3 million properties. Following California, the states with the largest number of exposed homes are Colorado (319,000), Texas (243,000), Oregon (128,000), and Arizona (124,000).
Much of this exposure occurs in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), where residential areas meet forests or undeveloped land, amplifying wildfire potential.
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Eight of the 15 metro areas with the highest concentration of at-risk homes are in California, yet wildfire danger extends beyond the Golden State. Urban areas such as Austin, Denver, and Colorado Springs are increasingly susceptible. Factors contributing to this rising risk include decades of vegetation buildup from fire suppression, population growth pushing development into WUI zones, and longer, drier fire seasons.
The report also examines specific events, including the Palisades and Eaton fires in January 2025. These fires began as standard wildfires but escalated into wildfire-induced conflagrations when flames spread from vegetation to homes and businesses. This transition significantly increases fire intensity and destruction. Since 2020, wildfire-induced conflagrations have destroyed over 26,000 structures nationwide.
Cotality’s findings highlight the expanding threat of wildfires across Western communities, emphasising the importance of improved risk assessment, urban planning, and preparedness to protect homes and lives.
“Wildfires are complex, fast-moving, dangerous—and a growing threat to homes and communities. Understanding the level of risk will help equip homeowners and insurers to take preventative action that can save properties and lives,” added Tom Larsen, Cotality’s AVP of Product Marketing for Insurance Solutions.
“There are many contributing factors to the increasing threat of wildfires, including where and how we build. Building with wildfires in mind and introducing mitigation measures for where we have already built is one of the critical conversations we need to be having right now.”
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