The latest assessment from international insurance group MAPFRE Economics points to a more favourable environment for insurers worldwide.
According to its new projections, life insurance activity is expected to grow 6.2% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, while non-life is set to rise 5.4% next year and 5.6% the following one. The group emphasises that the industry continues to adjust effectively to geopolitical stresses and shifting macroeconomic signals, with overall activity revised slightly upward compared with earlier expectations.
These conclusions accompany a broader update to the global economic picture. MAPFRE Economics has raised its worldwide growth forecast for 2025 to 3.1%, two tenths higher than previously estimated, while maintaining its 2026 outlook at 3%.
The organisation’s new report, Economic and Industry Outlook 2025: Fourth-Quarter Update, released by Fundación MAPFRE, keeps next year’s global inflation forecast at 3.4%, easing to 3% in 2026. The study notes that uncertainty in the international setting has fallen noticeably in recent months, helping stabilise the near-term outlook.
The baseline view still reflects a phase of moderating economic momentum paired with softer price pressures. Tariffs are expected to have limited impact through 2025, with stronger effects appearing in 2026. Within the report, MAPFRE Economics states, “The growth trajectory has remained solid, once again surpassing the risk outlook that had threatened a sharper slowdown, and showing that flexibility and adaptability are two of the defining features of the current cycle.”
In the US, the growth estimate improves slightly to 1.8% for 2025, the same predicted for 2026, with inflation at 3% and 2.6% across the two years. The Eurozone outlook also strengthens, with growth in 2025 now set at 1.3% and 2026 remaining at 1.1%, while inflation is projected at 2.1% and 1.8%.
Latin America is anticipated to expand by 2.1% next year and 2% in 2026, with average inflation of 8.8% and 8.1%. Emerging markets overall are expected to grow 3.7% this year and 3.4% next year, with inflation at 4.1% and 3.8%. The Asia-Pacific region is forecast to achieve 4.7% growth this year and 4.3% in 2026, and China is expected to increase by 4.6% in 2025 and 4.2% the following year, with inflation at 0% this year and 0.8% next year.
The improved global picture, coupled with easing price pressures and more favourable financial conditions, suggests that insurers may find continued support for growth in both life and non-life segments.
A steadier economic backdrop typically encourages higher demand for protection and savings products, while moderate inflation allows carriers to plan with greater confidence, strengthening the industry’s outlook as 2025 approaches.
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