Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated, a provider of life and health reinsurance solutions, has released new research that evaluates the potential effects of incretin-based therapies, including GLP-1 medications, on mortality and morbidity.
The full analysis is presented in RGA’s report, “Weighing the Evidence: A quantification of the mortality and morbidity impacts of GLP-1 and other incretin-based drugs in the US, UK, Canada, and Hong Kong populations.”
The study models how wider use of anti-obesity medications (AOMs) could influence population health outcomes over the next two decades.
In a central projection, AOMs may reduce overall mortality in the United States by 3.5% by 2045. Under alternative scenarios, this reduction could range from 1.0% in a pessimistic outlook to 8.8% in an optimistic one.
Similar estimates for other markets suggest mortality decreases of 2.0% in the UK, 2.6% in Canada, and 1.4% in Hong Kong. The analysis indicates that individuals aged 45 to 59 could see the most notable improvements, while those aged 85 and older would experience smaller effects.
The research also points to modest but positive declines in the incidence of certain cancers and chronic diseases. However, insured populations may experience smaller overall benefits than the general population due to lower average body mass index levels.
“We believe that anti-obesity medications will have a meaningful benefit on general population-level mortality. This will differ by geography, largely reflecting the obesity profiles of different markets, and by age, sex, and access to medicines,” commented Tony Cheng, President and CEO, RGA. “For insured groups, we tend to observe a lower average BMI, which is likely to translate to a smaller overall mortality impact compared to the general population.”
Although current costs limit access, RGA anticipates that increasing competition, the availability of generic options, and oral formulations will make incretin-based therapies more affordable. The next generation of these medications is expected to improve treatment outcomes for both diabetes management and obesity.
Ongoing research is also examining the potential for incretin-based therapies to address additional medical conditions, including neurodegenerative and substance use disorders. Their demonstrated anti-inflammatory properties, effects on metabolism, and influence on appetite and insulin sensitivity have drawn attention to their possible role in disease prevention.
“This is a fast-moving space with significant uncertainty, but the potential of these drugs is exciting,” added Cheng. “As the list of approved indications continues to expand, and adoption rises among those with existing illnesses, these therapies hold the potential to deliver a substantial positive impact on public health.”
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