Higher interest rates delivered strong profitability for the life and health sector in 2025, but re/insurers will need to be diligent about emerging risks such as mental health, metabolic health, mortality trends, and upscaling technology as they head into 2026, according to Paul Murray, CEO of Life & Health Reinsurance at Swiss Re.
Murray also discussed artificial intelligence (AI), noting that insurers worldwide are allocating 3–8% of IT budgets to AI, with a focus on unlocking efficiency gains and automating tasks to free up experts for higher-value work.
“The experience with AI in 2025 has shown that tech alone isn’t transformative,” said Murray. “I believe the organisations making the most progress are those pairing technology with skilled people — underwriters, claims experts, data analysts — who apply judgement and context. We continue to believe that the real value in AI comes when human expertise is enhanced by well-designed AI support.
“Insurers will also benefit from AI in parallel industries. Accelerating medical research into cancer and Alzheimer’s, for example, could kickstart life expectancy growth.”
He also emphasised that many regions still report higher all-cause mortality than pre-pandemic norms, although the trend is gradually improving.
In the US, Swiss Re has seen a meaningful shift with excess all-cause mortality falling, and is optimistic that this will continue.
Murray added, “Swiss Re research suggests GLP-1 drugs could reduce all-cause mortality by around 4% in the US general population over the next twenty years; if accompanied by widespread lifestyle changes, that improvement could exceed 6%. In addition, the wave of opioid deaths that contributed to excess mortality appears to have subsided. With hopeful data coming out from the CDC on a slow decline in that area.”
Moreover, the impact of mental health trends is something Swiss Re has been tracking for a long time as an emerging risk.
He explained, “This year, developments with the mental health impact on claims in Australia revealed an unpleasant fact – that some of our products no longer match the reality of a long-term change. Over the last 10 years, for example, the Council of Australian Life Insurers reported a 700% increase in Total and Permanent Disability (TPD) claims from people in their 30s due to mental health conditions. Over the last 10 years. These claims are flowing into products which simply weren’t set up with that underlying assumption.
“The answer to this situation will take a lot of work across the industry: From a close examination of exposed portfolios, through to a reassessment of the way we look at insurance by embracing prevention.
“What is clear is that early intervention and rehabilitation will need to evolve into integral links in the insure value chain. There is some promising work already happening. Swiss Re and Wysa’s mental health apps are showing real promise in deploying AI to guide people through good mental health practices. Wysa have reported reducing symptoms of depression and anxiety by 30%. It’s early days, but this is exciting.”
Murray concluded by emphasising the need to remain diligent about these emerging risks and to remember that this is a life-long business.
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