UK-based flood science specialist JBA Risk Management has launched a high-resolution US inland flood model, as new data reveals that almost one in three US properties – 38.6 million buildings – are at risk of flood.
The specialist’s analysis also suggests the US government significantly underestimates the threat from flood, with over three quarters of properties at fluvial risk (78%) falling outside of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) official high-risk flood zones.
This potentially undermines the effectiveness of the country’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), the firm stated.
The US Inland Flood Model covers all 48 lower US states and is built on JBA’s 5-metre resolution flood maps.
This high-level detail, which is fully hydro-dynamically modelled for the most realistic representation of inundation, enables insurance and risk professionals to better understand and analyse flood risk, as well as to support future planning, flood preparedness and resilience strategies.
The US model also integrates with HurLoss® – a market-leading hurricane wind and surge model – developed in collaboration with Applied Research Associates’ (ARA) natural hazard risk assessment and consulting division.
The move enables users of both models to access a single, coherent, and comprehensive multi-peril view of loss.
The collaboration recognises that combined hurricane and inland flooding is already driving significant losses in the US market. When the two events coincide, unexpectedly large losses can result from the compound effects of wind, storm surge, extreme rainfall, and flooding.
For example, last Autumn, Hurricane Helene brought catastrophic inland flooding, extreme winds, deadly storm surge, and numerous tornadoes, quickly followed by Hurricane Milton, which caused major damage in the Sarasota and Tampa Bay areas.
JBA’s US Inland Flood Model was validated using NFIP data (administered by FEMA) and received positive feedback and endorsements on its performance from select broking and insurer partners, according to the firm.
The model is easily accessible, based on the open-source OASIS loss-modelling framework, and available via Verisk’s Model Exchange Platform.
It is also fully customisable, enabling users to fine tune their view of risk by modifying, or if relevant, replacing model components to reflect their own specific risk criteria.
Matt Reid, Managing Director, JBA Risk Management Inc, commented: “Flood impacts every US state and is driving significant attritional and catastrophic losses. Our 5-metre resolution flood maps underpin new models that now provide insurers and reinsurers with the ability to fully assess and understand their potential losses from inland flood at an unprecedented level of detail.”
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