UK-domiciled flood science specialist JBA Risk Management has launched an updated version of its probabilistic India crop catastrophe model for insurers and reinsurers, incorporating enhanced market data, crops, seasons, and districts to provide better risk management insights.
Simultaneously, the specialist has also launched a range of additional support services, including an in-house disaggregation of exposure and has created post-processing tools outside of the model to help insurers analyse capped loss ratios relevant to states involved in the cup-and-cap schemes.
The newly calibrated model has been updated with recent market data to better reflect exposure and loss patterns. It now offers stronger validation, wider crop coverage, and updated geography, including the known split districts in Tamil Nadu.
Through this update, the model now captures the majority of India’s crop insurance market, covering 94% of physical crop insurance schemes, and 86% of the parametric-based insurance scheme by sum insured in 2022–23.
The first version of JBA’s India crop model was launched in 2018 following the state sponsorship of the PMFBY crop insurance scheme, which in 2016 aimed to provide cover for half of India’s farmers within two to four years. That scheme has since been reformed with additional cup-and-cap schemes providing an alternative risk transfer option from PMFBY.
The model employs a physical crop simulation approach, offering a thorough and realistic assessment of potential losses due to extreme weather events across Indian states and districts using DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer).
The method generates consistent and credible projections of crop yield and potential losses, and captures the impact of multiple extreme weather perils and reflects the natural growth pattern of different crop types.
It covers both Kharif and Rabi growing seasons across all schemes, representing 69 crop types across India. It includes over 10,000 years of simulated losses, with a strong focus on shorter return periods.
JBA stated, “Loss validation against recent PMFBY and cup-and-cap market data shows that the model captures key patterns in observed outcomes, with capped loss ratios averaging at 93% for both seasons. Vulnerable states that are not part of any cup-and-cap schemes include Assam and Haryana, where ratios are expected to exceed 100%. Higher uncapped loss ratios confirm that the model robustly captures tail losses, while state-level variation highlights its ability to reflect localised crop and climatic risks.”
JBA’s team is based in Singapore and also provides post-modelling support to help analyse capped loss ratios for participating cup-and-cap exposure. Its in-house expertise on yield-based modelling enables support for crop validation using DSSAT.
Nicole Chin, Product Lead, JBA Risk Management, commented, “At JBA, we are committed to supporting the market with robust, transparent probabilistic models that evolve with changing risk landscapes. Strengthening our offering for agricultural insurance and reinsurance gives our clients greater understanding and confidence in their decision-making.
“This move represents a step change in relevance and coverage, bringing our model in line with the realities of India’s crop insurance market, providing more detailed insights at the district and crop level, across both Kharif and Rabi seasons.
“Our model continues to retain DSSAT within its physical modelling framework to replicate yields across different crop varieties. This unique feature not only strengthens the realism of our loss calculations but also provides insurers with a valuable tool, particularly as DSSAT is now recognised as an approved method for validation.”
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